When I first started driving, I drove a real beater car; one of those 80s American cars. The power steering didn’t work too well, the passenger side floor had a hole in it, and the head gasket blew after only a few months of driving. After repairing that, one of the pistons melted, and after repairing that… I got rear-ended, so that was that.
The second car I got was an old Toyota Corolla with a manual transmission. The engine was a lot more solid (and it was carbureted! Just to show you how old the car was…), and I was able to beat the heck out of it without any problems with the drivetrain. The body, on the other hand, was falling apart, and so were some of the mechanics.
When I bought the car, I had to replace the radiator right away since the one it had was leaky. I had to change the brakes since the ones I had no longer worked. One of the rear wheels was hanging on by only one suspension arm, since the other one had rusted completely through. The tires were literally worn down to the metal; you could see the wires through the rubber. I drove that car until one day the tires exploded; it was to the scrap heap from there.
After that point on, I had a bit more money, I was working, and I decided to stop playing with my life and buy a new car. I also didn’t want people to be scared for me (or themselves!) because I was driving around in a scrap heap. While the new car was a lot more secure and a lot more reliable, it wasn’t the greatest financial decision; my insurance skyrocketed, and I now had car payments to pay!
I compounded the mistake by exchanging it for another car 4 years later. Let’s face it, it is almost too easy to buy a new car these days. Whereas some banks will turn you down for financing a used car, almost nobody will turn you down for financing a leased vehicle.
I’m in a different phase of my life now, and I’m realizing just how expensive car ownership is. Since I’ve already paid most of the depreciation on my current car, I’m considering sticking with it for the long haul. How about you? I’ve prepared an analysis below to compare three different situations with the same type of car:
- Lease a new car every four years, for twelve years.
- Buy a new car and keep it for twelve years.
- Buy a used car every four years, for twelve years.
Before we get into the analysis, let’s look at a couple reasons why people buy new cars: status and reliability.
Reasons not to get a new car
People (especially young people) often give silly justifications to themselves in order to justify spending money on a new car. They can include the following:
“A new car will help me get the girls!” (status)
Not necessarily. A new car might impress a girl into getting into your car, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that she will stay around, or that she’s the right type of girl for you. Also, there are plenty of older cars that will impress a lot more than your standard everyday new car. For example:
Which car do you think will impress a girl more? Or, to ask it another way, which car do you think will impress your guy friends more?
“A new car will give me less headaches and cost less in maintenance!” (reliability)
Not always true. This is what I thought, but you don’t have to buy $500 beaters like I did, and don’t forget that many new cars have recalls or manufacturing defects that also cause problems. It’s said that new cars can help improve gas mileage, but one must consider the total costs of car ownership and not solely the costs of gas alone.
Many of the older Japanese cars are very reliable and require little out of the ordinary other than regular maintenance, and can also be had for a cool $3000 to $5000. They will also cost significantly less in insurance than a new car. If you live in a region with strict emissions controls, then you do want to verify that passing inspections won’t cost you a fortune in order to get the car certified.
So, still think it’s worth it to buy a new car? The conventional wisdom says no. The conventional consumer says yes. I say… it depends on what you’re looking for. A new car can bring emotional joy that you just don’t get with a used car, not to mention that you can customize it how you like with your own color and packages (on the other hand, you can spend the same amount of money and get a really nice luxury or sporty used car). This emotional satisfaction does come at a price though, and the buzz does wear off after a couple of months.
If you don’t care about any of this emotional stuff, then a used car makes more financial sense. A good chunk of depreciation happens right after the car is driven off the lot, so you can often find a good deal on an “almost new” car.
Certain cars (i.e. Honda Accords, Toyota Corollas) hold their value well over the years, so you can drive the car for many years and still sell it for a decent chunk of change. Why? Well, these cars have a reputation for being reliable, and the reputation is usually deserved, so you will have less headaches over the long run. For someone who really knows their way around cars, a cheap American car might be a better purchase, as the parts are cheaper and the cars are sometimes easier to work on.
The analysis
Here are the assumptions:
- New car purchase price: $24 000
- Depreciation: 20%/year, 10%/year after 8 years.
- Maintenance & repairs: $600/yr for the first 4 years, $850/yr for the next 4 years, and $1100/yr for the last 4 years.
- Tires cost $800/4 years.
- Insurance costs 8% of the current value, with a minimum price of $500/yr.
- Financing costs are ignored.
Here are the scenarios:
- Lease a new car every four years, for twelve years.
- Buy a new car and keep it for twelve years.
- Buy a used car every four years, for twelve years.
And finally, here are the numbers:
Lease a new car every four years, for twelve years
Year | Value, end of year | Maintenance | Insurance | |
1 | $19,200 | $1,300 | $1,536 | |
2 | $15,360 | $600 | $1,229 | |
3 | $12,288 | $600 | $983 | |
4 | $9,830 | $600 | $786 | |
5 | $19,200 | $1,300 | $1,536 | |
6 | $15,360 | $600 | $1,229 | |
7 | $12,288 | $600 | $983 | |
8 | $9,830 | $600 | $786 | |
9 | $19,200 | $1,300 | $1,536 | |
10 | $15,360 | $600 | $1,229 | |
11 | $12,288 | $600 | $983 | |
12 | $9,830 | $600 | $786 | |
Total cost, car | $42,509 | |||
Total cost, maintenance | $9,300 | |||
Total cost, insurance | $13,603 | |||
Total cost | $65,412 | |||
Total cost/year | $5,451 |
Buy a new car and keep it for twelve years
Year | Value, end of year | Maintenance | Insurance | |
1 | $19,200 | $1,300 | $1,536 | |
2 | $15,360 | $600 | $1,229 | |
3 | $12,288 | $600 | $983 | |
4 | $9,830 | $600 | $786 | |
5 | $7,864 | $1,650 | $629 | |
6 | $6,291 | $850 | $503 | |
7 | $5,033 | $850 | $500 | |
8 | $4,027 | $850 | $500 | |
9 | $3,624 | $1,900 | $500 | |
10 | $3,261 | $1,100 | $500 | |
11 | $2,935 | $1,100 | $500 | |
12 | $2,642 | $1,100 | $500 | |
Total cost, car | $21,358 | |||
Total cost, maintenance | $12,500 | |||
Total cost, insurance | $8,667 | |||
Total cost | $42,525 | |||
Total cost/year | $3,544 |
Buy a used car every four years, for twelve years
Year | Value, end of year | Maintenance | Insurance | |
1 | $4,027 | $1,900 | $500 | |
2 | $3,624 | $1,100 | $500 | |
3 | $3,262 | $1,100 | $500 | |
4 | $2,936 | $1,100 | $500 | |
5 | $4,027 | $1,900 | $500 | |
6 | $3,624 | $1,100 | $500 | |
7 | $3,262 | $1,100 | $500 | |
8 | $2,936 | $1,100 | $500 | |
9 | $4,027 | $1,900 | $500 | |
10 | $3,624 | $1,100 | $500 | |
11 | $3,262 | $1,100 | $500 | |
12 | $2,936 | $1,100 | $500 | |
Total cost, car | (car sold for $2,642) | $4,155 | ||
Total cost, maintenance | $15,600 | |||
Total cost, insurance | $6,000 | |||
Total cost | $25,755 | |||
Total cost/year | $2,146 |
Summary
As you can see, for the same type of car, it is more economical to keep driving the same car for 12 years rather than to replace it three times. It is even more economical if you buy the same car 8 years used instead of new.
Disclaimer: The numbers here are a general extrapolation from my own experiences, and they can work out differently for different people. Andrew Hallam, for example, has a story to share about selling used cars at a profit instead of eating the depreciation, which makes the case for buying a used car even more compelling. Of course, it’s not always about the numbers. I’d love to hear what you think!
Mike says
Kevin,
Very well thought out post. It’s smart that you are considering insurance costs in the analysis. I have never really looked at keeping a car for 12 years, but it might make sense.
What I do now is buy a car that is 1-2 years old with somewhat high miles. (I know that sounds weird re: high miles) However, I only drive may 10k miles per year. I am able to negotiate a lot lower price with the miles. After about 4-5 years, I sell the car and the mileage is considered normal for a car 5 years old. I pay cash for the car and continue saving (in my car bucket) every month or quarter. This works out and I don’t end up paying interest.
By the way, nice pic of the Z 28. I love muscle care and would like to get an early 70s style Mach I.
Andrew Hallam says
Mike, that sounds really smart. One of my favorite strategies was buying an American car that was actually Japanese. American cars plunge in value, while Japanese cars tend to maintain theirs. In Canada, the Mitsubishi Eclipse sports car that they sell in the U.S. is actually called (or was called) the Eagle Talon. It was a great car, and because of its American affiliation, it plunged in value. That would be a great car to hold for a while–or a car like it. I recall that the 1994 Ford Escort was 100% Mazda as well. I went on a hunt for them, but I found that there were many others who knew what I did. So I was never able to scoop one.
Kevin, the work you put into your posts is very appreciated. I love the photos and the attention to detail.
Andrew
Kevin says
@Mike
Yep, it’s a pretty nice car… the comparison wasn’t fair (assuming you are a guy looking to buy a car; my girlfriend might think differently if she was the one shopping ;))
@Andrew
That’s a good trick; I was actually looking for an Eagle Talon at one point but all the ones I found had already been beaten up to hell and were on their last legs. Probably was a good thing; the way I used to drive I probably wouldn’t have survived.
A friend of mine used to drive a ’94 protege that he had bought for a good price off a woman who hadn’t driven it that much; it was in very good shape for the age. I think he bought it for $4,000, abused the car until the engine starting making funny noises, then sold it for $2,000. No profit, but he had a lot of fun with the car…
Thanks for the feedback guys!
Car Negotiation Coach says
Kevin, very interesting analysis. You may be surprised because of my blog, but I’m a buy and hold guy myself.
Your story reminded me of my friend’s car in high school. Everytime he made a left turn the passenger seat got sprayed with anti-freeze…..so he kept a bag of sand on the floor to absorb it….of course he wouldn’t mention it until after you commented on the sand or he took a left turn…. real nice!
.-= Car Negotiation Coach´s last blog ..14 Extreme ways to lower your car insurance premiums =-.
Kevin says
Hey, welcome to the blog!
Wow… I wouldn’t have enjoyed riding shotgun in his car. I have to admit that new cars eat up a lot of money, but on the other hand, my days of driving ghetto beaters is over. 😉
Used Car Inspection says
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Kevin says
Most useful spam comment ever? Haha… I’ll let you keep the link.